Hurricane Isaias hits Florida's Gulf Coast: why this season was so quiet, and how El Niño and warm seas shaped the storm

Key takeaways

• Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin on Florida's Gulf Coast late on Friday, 9 October, as a Category 2 hurricane, then weakened rapidly to a post-tropical cyclone as it moved into Alabama.
• Isaias is the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026. It tied a 1905 storm for the latest-forming first hurricane of a season on record, according to an atmospheric scientist writing in The Conversation.
• Power outages hit hundreds of thousands: the BBC reported more than 400,000 customers without power in Florida, about 300,000 in Alabama and over 100,000 in Georgia on Saturday morning.
• Florida, Alabama and Georgia declared states of emergency, and the White House approved emergency declarations for two of them, the BBC said.
• A historically strong El Niño suppressed Atlantic storms this year, while record-warm Gulf waters helped Isaias intensify quickly, scientists told AFP.

What happened

Isaias formed over the western Gulf of Mexico rather than the deep tropics. Storm surge reached 5.6 feet at Panama City Beach as it crossed the coast, according to The Conversation. In Pensacola, winds tore roofs from some homes and businesses, RTE reported, and two airports in northwest Florida suspended operations.

By Saturday the National Hurricane Center had discontinued warnings. The storm was moving over southern Alabama with gusty winds and a continuing flash-flood threat well inland, and it is expected to cross toward the Tennessee Valley over the weekend.

Mandatory evacuations had been ordered in coastal Florida and Alabama counties. President Trump cancelled a planned visit to a college football game in Tuscaloosa because of the storm.

Why 2026 was so quiet until now

Usually the Atlantic has about five hurricanes and two major hurricanes by early October. Having none until 7 October is "nearly unprecedented" in the record, The Conversation notes.

The main reason is El Niño, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It increases wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms, and dries the air. Michael Fischer of the University of Miami told AFP the Atlantic has seen "nearly record strong shear" this year, consistent with a strong El Niño. The Pacific has the opposite effect: it has already produced several hurricanes, some reaching Category 5.

In early October, wind shear weakened over the western Gulf and a patch of moisture moved in, which, with very warm water, let Isaias form.

The warm-water factor

AFP reported that scientists link the rapid intensification to record-warm Gulf waters. Climate Central estimated Gulf waters are about 1.4C above the pre-industrial average and that Isaias formed over water temperatures made 600 times more likely by climate change. Sea-level rise of roughly 16 cm in the region also raises storm surge, it said. Isaias is the first hurricane to hit the US mainland since Milton in 2024.

Wider impacts

• Oil and gas: About 71% of the Gulf's oil production was temporarily halted, roughly 1.5 million barrels a day, with 59% of gas production suspended, according to a US federal agency cited by AFP and Reuters.
• Other storms: Hurricane Simon is forecast to make landfall near Puerto Vallarta in Mexico on Sunday, and Tropical Storm Rachel is heading for the US-Mexico border on the Pacific side, the BBC reported.

What to watch

• Inland flooding across Alabama, Georgia and the Tennessee Valley over the weekend.
• How quickly power is restored and Gulf oil and gas output recovers.
• Whether more Atlantic storms form: the season officially runs to 30 November, and October conditions can change quickly.